Thursday, 16 August 2007

The 'no exit strategy' exit strategy

Can exit strategies be self defeating? Does the stated ambition of an exit strategy reduce the possibility of achieving that goal?

According to rational expectations theory of individuals behaviour choices the potential buyer will examine the reasons why the owners are selling the company and make assumoptions about the sellers behaviour. The key point is a stated exit strategy may indicate flaws in the business that are causing the stakeholders to exit the business. Rational individuals will also understand this and conclude that the business is worth less because of hidden problems with the business. Moreover it may deter from a sale when previously it may have occured.

Of course stakeholders may have very valid reasons to leave a business that are unrelated to the business itself. But how does the buyer know this, or, more importantly trust that this is not a cover up? They can undertake due dilligence and develop relationships with stakeholders to build trust and confidence. All at a cost of time and money.

In smaller businesses with fewer staff the risk is more significant. One reason for the possible contradiction is that the stakeholders shift their focus from core business functions of generating revenue and running operations to focussing on packaging the business. Here the exit strategy is directly affecting the business performance and removing value from the business.

Should the optimal position for a business stakeholders seeking to exit their business either through a sale be not to declare that is their intention? Is the best Exit strategy a publicly stated 'no exit strategy' strategy?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Its an interesting point.... A VC wouldn’t handle it.

The key is to make sure the stakeholder is not part of the business. Then he/she isn’t subject to the same scrutiny. An alternative is to provoke the competition continuously and become such a thorn in their side. By developing an informal channel to the competition’s senior execs and stating we are not for sale......